by Jon Davis
Generally, given the rules that you set down I don’t think the U.S. would lose.That said, not losing is far from winning. We would suffer greatly and no longer be a world power worth speaking of. We would probably be little more than another third world power grasping for scraps. But we would maintain our sovereignty. The reason I think we would not lose are because without a nuclear strike and force large enough to take us out would take so long to muster and need to secure so much land that there is almost no way they would succeed in conquering us before we mount a counteroffensive or even first strike against them. You’ll see what I mean later.
Just for fun though… I wrote a scene of what I think it would be like if the rest of the world could use nukes. It is a much more entertaining story.
Well if every country decided to go at it with us for poops and giggles then yes, I would think they would win. Sadly you got me considering how it would go down and I feel compelled to draw it out for future pessimists in the way I see that it might happen. The following sources for this come from my years in the United States Marine Corps including two very boring deployments where I spent months having these goofy hypothetical what ifs, amateur study of modern civilization strength and technology, and watching the 1980’s classic Red Dawn. Enjoy:
Stage one: Shock and Awe
(Yes I ignored your nuke rule because hey, what would be the fun if you didn’t throw a nuke or two into a doomsday war against the world scenario.)
This is the ugly phase of the operation. Several nations have missiles that could be potentially threatening to the United States’ cities and installations. Of particular importance is the Chinese I would think. They have high velocity nukes that are used to target an entire Aircraft Carrier Group. That is important because it isn’t just the one powerful ship. They travel with many other escort ships, several tens of thousands of people and they might even be docked at important Naval installations like San Diego, Pearl Harbor (not again) or New York. Plus we have only 11 and they are sort of important for defense and air superiority.
Of course there is the stockpile of Russia, with more weapons from the U.K., France and as mentioned China. Others have the weapons as well, but they are in their infancy and likely not a threat by the time the others are done with our major cities.
Other countries also probably won’t care too much about our policy of being nice and targeting only military installations in the way the we did during Operation Iraqi Freedom. I am guessing that while some of our good friends like the U.K. (who inexplicably declared war on us) might observe this, others are just going to be nastier. They understand that this is going to be an ugly war and bringing us down as fast as possible would probably be their best bet.
Things that we should expect at this point: Several cities will be brought down. In our vastly interconnected world this is going to bring down a lot of services. Internet – gone, power – gone, telephone – gone. (These are pretty important.)
There is also the threat of another pretty ugly weapon that would probably be part of the opening barrage. High altitude nuclear explosions. These weapons shower the region with energized electrons that short circuits electrical devices in their target radius. Here are some great info-graphs to breakdown the damage of one of these.
Just suffice it to say in the first few hours we are going back to about the 1820’s technologically speaking. Most of our leaders and talent in the cities are going to be scurrying for their lives to escape the eviscerated cities and no one has any power, water, cellphone or a clue what the heck just happened. Now it is time for down and dirty fighting.
Stage two: Blitzkrieg
The main way that the war will be lost will happen after the confusion starts. During this period there will be a massive yet very surgical operations. The Nazi’s mastered this technique first in which a massive force seeks to push right through to capture extremely important strategic operations. The United States also used this to capture Baghdad in less than a month with this strategy.
In the War of US vs Them this will probably involve many commandos attacking strategic sites. Fortunately this will have limited ability to actually work since there are these two oceans covering our flanks. The best that could be done is with a large force from Mexico attacking bases in Texas and the Southwest, particular in the desert where there is a great deal of military bases between Las Vegas, San Diego and Yuma while the Canucks attack the Northeast. It would look like this I bet.
Stage three: Securing Operations
Assuming that stage 1 and 2 work out for the best (for them at least) begins the securing operations. This is where we are brought under the command of the our new warlords. We can expect a massive influx of warriors from Russia and China coming from Alaska. We could expect more to invade the Northeast from Europe. Africans would likely flood attack the Old South while South America would most likely take over everything from California to Nebraska to the Mississippi River. This is going to be the ugliest fighting since Iwo Jima meets Rwanda. By this time the counteroffensives would start and the country side would be a massive battleground… damn. We do have some advantages here. America is big, very big. We have assets literally all over the place. So even a major offensive would have a great deal of territory to cover. Plus you look at the Interstate Road structure in the U.S. is actually quite advanced and lends itself to defense of such an invasion (Are you curious about how Eisenhower, the military leader of the Allies in Europe during WWII would want it built at the start of the Cold War?)
Still though. We are considering a combined of attack of 96% of the world. I am sure that our military would cause some pretty massive payback, but I am still a bit worried. I think our best bet will happen somewhere in the Northeast to the Midwest. It would take a long time to get to those places. Denver would also be a pretty good fortress as our gateway to the West. Texans are also pretty crazy and ornery, but they will be one the first battlegrounds.
Stage four: Policing operations.
Now is when the civilian populous will have to come under the thumb of the World Military Force. This means that soldiers are going to be flooding our towns , our streets and sleeping in our beds as we are forced to feed them. That is except these guys…
The Local Militias
(These guys are tactical and if that patch is any indication, also would come in handy during a zombie apocalypse as well.)
(You know in all seriousness, you thought these guys were crazy, but when the big day goes down the nutbar on left is going to respond only to Colonel.)
The local militias are fringe people pre-World Against America. They keep mostly to themselves, dislike most others in the world for various philosophical reasons and keep a lot of guns. Most have a military or police background and training, and most importantly, they keep a lot of guns. They form into gun clubs where they share a great deal of their ideals some go on to think of themselves as paramilitary at some point, and their guns. While we don’t really respect what they do today, ok in truth we mock them to their backs because we are terrified of how crazy they might be, they will be the leaders of a grassroots rebellion come “Black Thursday” (It will happen on a Thursday, just wait and see.) Did I also mention that they have lots of guns?
Now yes, these are fringe people, but they will likely serve as a power base that actual warriors no longer serving in the military will flock to. The United States has over 21.8 million veterans. A lot of them are not going to like being conquered and they will be forming and flocking to these groups. So now the grounds will be seething with guerrilla warriors, picking and raiding, bombing and disrupting every major military operation that the enemy has with every dirty trick we have learned from the War on Terror and beyond, but unable to use. That includes Vietnamese death traps, IED’s from Iraq and hiding in caves from the Afghans. These guys are survivors and will likely keep the enemy so confused, disrupted and demoralized that the war could last for decades. Perhaps even long enough for a counteroffensive.
The facts are, it would be close I think.
Pros for America:
- America has by far the best military in the world, in terms of general size, training, equipment and experience.
- We have two large oceans to protect our borders.
- We have a huge land area that needs to be secured. With the large oceans the real war after the first two months would be logistical as we start fighting dirty.
- We have a massive populous with military training and the weapons to back it up.
- The world is a very perse place. There are a lot of different cultures, languages and ideas that would all have to work together. Working together is hard.
- An attack of this nature would take a massive amount of buildup which would hopefully not surprise our intelligence agencies. We would likely know that this is happening and would probably be able to get some of our defenses up to code by the point the first bombs drop.
- This whole cockamammy scheme requires a lot of things to go right for the invaders and even more to go wrong for the U.S. of course we have had our share of bad luck and bad leadership so just maybe…
Pros against America.
- There are a lot of people in the world. America 4% < World 96%.
- Many countries are specialized in ways that on an inpidual basis could probably beat the Americans. Chinese have numbers, Israeli have commandos, France actually have the ability to produce all the heavy weapons we use now. And the Aussies just kind of rock, as well as many others.
- A surprise attack would devastate American infrastructure and response time.
- Without technology I am not sure if we would have the capabilities to launch a successful counteroffensive against such a force.
- Mexico would provide an easy avenue to some of the most valuable military and civilian assets in the Southern United States and Canada to the Northeast. Land routes would be available to reinforcements from South America and Africa (because Africa is close to Brazil, I know they can’t walk to the States.)
To stick strictly to the rules of the post. No I don’t think the rest of world could “win” and conquer the U.S. if no nukes were used. Aren’t you glad you read all the way down here though? In the case that they did use nukes, I think the numbers are on their side. I truly think it would take literally decades and hundreds of millions if not billions of people lost. Perhaps the rest of the world would give up at those losses. In either case, after writing my little rant I am severely hoping we get better at our diplomacy.